For many people, coffee is a daily ritual. But what ends up as a small cup on the breakfast table or a flat white at a favourite café has a complex story behind it – and a price that has been under serious pressure in recent years.

Global green coffee markets have been on a rollercoaster since 2021. The causes are many: extreme weather, container shortages, political influence, stock market speculation – and steadily rising demand. For producers, roasters and ultimately consumers, the effects are very real.

For context: as a specialty roastery, we don't buy through the commodity exchange. Instead, we source through our specialty coffee importers directly from producers. That said, the exchange price still forms the baseline for most coffees, with premiums – known as differentials – added on top. These reflect quality, origin, variety, processing method, certification or small, exceptional lots. In other words: the actual production costs of the farmers.

From Ruinous Lows to Record Highs

To put things in perspective: just a few years ago, the exchange price for one American pound of green coffee (roughly 454 grams) was around 1 US dollar – a catastrophically low price that threatened the livelihoods of producers worldwide.

Then came the reversal: at the start of 2025, the price climbed to over 4 US dollars per pound.

A 4-dollar exchange price often translates to 8 US dollars per kilogram or more for base-grade coffee – an enormous increase compared to previous years.

In Germany, each kilogram of coffee also carries an additional €2.19 coffee tax plus 7% VAT.

The New Reality: High Prices Are Here to Stay

Many hoped prices would drop back to previous levels after peaking in January and February. That hasn't happened.

The 1.80 to 2 dollar prices of the past are gone. The market has settled at a higher plateau. Even supermarket roasters, who were able to delay the impact for a long time thanks to large stockpiles, have had to adjust their prices accordingly.

Why Coffee Is Getting More Expensive – The Four Main Drivers

Climate

The key factor: coffee is weather-dependent. Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, has been hit by frost and drought in recent years. Plants have been lost, entire harvests have shrunk.

Coffee trees stressed by extreme weather produce smaller beans – reducing overall volumes even further. In September, everyone was anxiously watching whether enough rain would fall for a good flowering season. That anxiety was reflected directly in exchange prices.

Demand

Countries like China and India are increasingly discovering coffee. Even if only a small share of their populations drinks coffee regularly, the sheer size of these markets has a massive impact on global demand.

In some cases, entire harvests are being bought up for domestic consumption – limiting availability for importers like us. This year, for example, we were unable to source an Indian coffee that had been part of our range for years, because the producer could sell it within India at significantly better prices.

Politics

Political decisions can move prices overnight. We're currently watching trade tariffs, including the 50% duties the US recently imposed on Brazilian products.

Brazilian coffee exports to the US dropped dramatically as early as September. At the same time, prices for roasted coffee there rose by as much as 20% in some cases. Roasters are trying to shift to other origins – but Brazil is nearly impossible to replace in terms of volume and flavour profile.

Speculation

Like any commodity traded on an exchange, coffee is subject to speculation by traders. When prices rise, many jump in hoping for quick gains – and exit just as fast. This leads to sometimes extreme price swings.

Our Take: More Expensive, but Also More Valuable

The coffee prices of the past won't come back. And fundamentally, that's the right outcome: rock-bottom prices were ruinous for producers.

At the same time, the current situation brings new challenges – for us as roasters and for everyone who loves coffee. Forward planning, precise calculations, long-term contracts and daily monitoring of the exchange are now part of our routine.

Reliable partnerships in green coffee sourcing are especially important to us. Through our long-standing relationships with importers and producers, we're able to maintain quality even in turbulent times – and offer coffees that genuinely deliver in the cup.

Compromising on quality or variety is not an option for us. Because coffee should remain one thing: sensorially exciting. And that has its price.